Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton holds as much as a 13-point lead over Barack Obama, her closest rival in the presidential primary, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup survey. However, in reporting this news today, USA Today failed to point out that its poll was taken on a nationwide scale. While this tidbit is essentially a given, it is significant nonetheless.
At the end of the day, the aggregate national opinion is good for little else beyond political pontification; what really matters is statewide numbers. Polls taken at the state level show that the primaries could play out much differently than nationwide polls may suggest. For instance, in the latest poll taken in South Carolina from June 13- 15, Barack Obama trounces Hillary Clinton, 34 to 25 percent. Granted, most other important states show strong support for Clinton, mirroring nationwide opinion. But a win in a big state like South Carolina could give a candidate like Obama the momentum needed to overtake the lead.
To muddy the waters even more, it is hard to give too much weight to polling figures-- nationwide or otherwise-- when they change so wildly from week to week. In my opinion, it only shows that the general public is not yet as engrossed in the race as the media or political junkies inside the beltway already are.
No comments:
Post a Comment